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Election Maps Oct 30th

I confess I am one of THOSE people who check at least 4 electoral maps everyday. This is despite the fact that Nate Silver cautioned against daily viewing on The Daily Show. His daily column, NYT: FiveThirtyEight, and the Votemasters, electoral-vote.com, on the polls has fueled my need to check the maps everyday (okay, sometime twice a day). While it is interesting to see how the maps differ it is very frustrating not being able to determine which is the most accurate. So, while most people are a awaiting the results of the Presidential election to find out who will be the our next President, I can’t wait to check the maps against the results.

Below is information collected from those 4 electoral maps on Oct 30th. I will collect information again on Nov 5th, and then compare the actual election results to the Oct 30th and Nov 5th electoral maps.

 

NYT: FiveThirtyEight Oct 29th 7:51  PM ET

Obama – 294.6 electoral votes, 50.3%  of the popular vote

  • Obama Solid [237 electoral votes]*
  • Likely Obama [34 electoral votes]
    • Nevada – Projected vote share +/- 3.5 Obama 51.0, Romney 48.1
    • Ohio – Projected vote share +/- 3.3 Obama 50.5, Romney 48.4
    • Wisconsin – Projected vote share +/- 3.5 Obama 51.1, Romney 47.8
  • Lean Obama [10 electoral votes]
    • Iowa – Projected vote share +/-4.0 Obama 50.7, Romney 48.5
    • New Hampshire – Projected vote share +/- 4.3 Obama 50.7, Romney 48.5

Romney 243.4 electoral votes, 48.8% of the popular vote

  • Romney Solid [191 electoral votes]
  • Likely Romney [15 electoral votes]
    • North Carolina  – Projected vote share +/- 3.2 Obama 48.3, Romney 51.1
  • Lean Romney [29 electoral votes]
    • Florida  – Projected vote share +/-3.2 Obama 49.8, Romney 50.3

Tossup [24 electoral votes]

  • Colorado – Projected vote share +/- 3.7 Obama 49.8, Romney 49.2
  • Virginia  – Projected vote share +/-3.0   Obama 50.0, Romney 49.4

 

**Electoral vote count shown in [ ] was calculated from information on the website.

_______________________________________________________

Huffington Post Oct. 30th 11:51 am ET

Obama – Electoral Votes 259

  • Strong Obama 217 electoral votes
  • Lean Obama 42 electrical votes
    • Iowa – 6
    • Nevada – 6
    • Pennsylvania – 20
    • Wisconsin – 10

Romney – Electoral Votes 206

  • Strong Romney 191 electrical votes
  • Leans Romney 15 electrical votes
    • North Carolina – 15

Tossup – Electoral Votes 73

  • Colorado -9
  • Florida – 29
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Ohio – 18
  • Virginia – 13

___________________________________________

Real Clear Politics Oct 30th

Obama – Electoral Votes 201

  • Solid Obama 142 electoral votes
  • Likely Obama 41 electoral votes
    • Connecticut – 7
    • Maine – 3
    • New Jersey 14
    • New Mexico – 5
    • Washington – 12
  • Lean Obama 18 electrical votes
    • Maine CD2 – 1
    • Minnesota – 10
    • Oregon – 7

Romney – Electoral Votes 191

  • Solid Romney 127 electoral votes
  • Likely Romney 50 electoral votes
    • Georgia – 16
    • Indiana – 11
    • Missouri – 10
    • Nebraska CD2 – 1
    • South Carolina – 9
    • South Dakota – 3
  • Leans Romney 14 electoral votes
    • Arizona – 11
    • Montana – 3

Tossup – Electoral Votes 146

  • Colorado -9
  • Florida – 29
  • Iowa – 6
  • Michigan – 16
  • Nevada – 6
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • North Carolina – 15
  • Ohio – 18
  • Pennsylvania – 20
  • Virginia – 13
  • Wisconsin – 10

______________________________________

electoral-vote.com Oct 30th around 7am

Obama – Electoral Votes 280

  • Strong Obama 195 electoral votes
  • Likely Obama 32 electoral votes
    • New Mexico – 5
    • Oregon – 7
    • Pennsylvania – 20
  • Barely Obama 53 electoral votes
    • Colorado – 9
    • Minnesota – 10
    • Nevada – 6
    • Ohio – 18
    • Wisconsin – 10

Romney – Electoral Votes 235

  • Strong Romney 142 electoral votes
  • Likely Romney 49 electoral votes
    • Arizona – 11
    • Georgia – 16
    • Montana – 3
    • Missouri – 10
    • South Carolina – 9
  • Barely Romney 44 electoral votes
    • Florida – 29
    • North Carolina – 15

Exactly tied – Electoral Votes 23

  • Iowa – 6
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Virginia – 13

_______________________________________

There are two other election maps that I find useful/interesting. The PBS Newshour’s VOTE 2012 Electoral Calculator allows the user to change the winners of each state and then gives the electoral count; this helped me calculate electoral votes from the NYT:FiveThiryEight’s site. The Princeton Election Consortium’s “Today’s Electoral College Map” distorts the size of the states to represent the number of electoral votes. When you look at the map, Montana and Wyoming are about the size of Maine and Vermont, and the map is more evenly red and blue. Besides giving a more accurate visual of the electoral college, this site also allows the user to tweak the polling results 2% in every state either for Obama or Romney, allowing the user to see how close the election is.