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Election Maps — Nov 5th — Election Eve Predictions

Last Tuesday I posted the information from four election map sites. I have posted at the end of this blog the information from today for those same sites. Not surprisingly, not one of the maps has gone completely unchanged. One map, the Real Clear Politics, solid electoral votes have not changed.  The NYT: FiveThirtyEight has Obama with 22 more solid electoral votes (oops last week number said 237 it should have been 241), while Romney’s have not changed. The Huffington Post has Obama with 20 more Strong electoral votes, and Romney with 15 less. And, electoral-vote.com has Obama with fourteen more solid votes, and Romney also with 15 less.

The states in play are still playing. According to the FiveThirtyEight, 2 states have gone from Lean Obama to Likely Obama and 2 Toss-up states have gone to Lean Obama. Romney on the other hand has had a state move from Lean Romney to Toss-up. The Huffington Post has Ohio changed from Toss-up to Leans Obama, while North Carolina changed from Leans Romney to Toss-up. Real Clear Politics only has positive movement: Washington changed from Likely to Solid Obama, and Montana changed from Leans to Likely Romney. On the opposite side of the spectrum is electoral-vote.com, with the most changes. There have been negative changes for both Obama and Romney. Negative movement in the Obama column includes Michigan going from Strong to Likely, Pennsylvania going from Likely to Barely, and Colorado going from Barely to Toss-up. South Dakota from Strong to Likely, and North Carolina from Barely to Toss-up are the two negative changes in Romney’s column. There have also been positive changes, but only for Obama: Minnesota from Barely to Likely, and 3 Toss-up states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia, to Barely.

Below are two tables comparing today’s information from the 4 sites. All but one has Obama with at least 277 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics has neither candidate with 277. Real Clear Politics also has more than double any other sites’ number of Toss-ups at 11. The second table looks at the states in play. All four sites agree  on 7 states. All but the FiveThirtyEight agree on 3 more states. 14 states are considered in play by only Real Clear Politics and electoral-vote.com.  And one state is considered in play by Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight, but not by the others.

Electoral Counts for Obama Total Solid Likely Lean
FiveThirtyEight  307.2*  303  28  12
Huffington Post  277  237  NA  40
Real Clear Politics  201  154  29  18
electoral-vote.com  294  179  38  77
Electoral Counts for Romney Total Solid Likely Lean
FiveThirtyEight  230.8*  206  16  0
Huffington Post  191  191  NA  0
Real Clear Politics  191  127  53  11
electoral-vote.com  220  139  52  29
Electoral Counts for Toss-ups States Electoral Votes
FiveThirtyEight  1  29
Huffington Post  5  70
Real Clear Politics  11  146
electoral-vote.com  2  24

*The estimated total is averaged from the FiveThirtyEight simulations — that is why it does not equal to the total of solid, Likely, and Lean.

States in Play Likely* Lean Tossup Notes
 Colorado  O-538  Huff, RCR, ev  4
 Florida  R-ev  538, Huff, RCR  4
 Iowa  O-538  O-Huff, O-ev  RCR  4
 New Hampshire  O-538  O-ev  Huff, RCR  4
 North Carolina  R-538  Huff, RCR, ev  4
 Ohio  O-538  O-Huff, O-ev  RCR  4
 Virginia  O-538, O-ev  Huff, RCR  4
 Pennsylvania  O-Huff, O-ev  RCR  3
 Nevada  O-Huff, O-ev  RCR  3
 Wisconsin  O-Huff, O-ev  RCR  3
 Arizona  R-ev  R-RCR  2
 Georgia  R-RCR, R-ev  2
 Michigan  O-ev  RCR  2
 Minnesota  O-ev  O-RCR  2
 Missouri  R-RCR, R-ev  2
 Montana  R-RCR, R-ev  2
 Nebraska CD2-2 (1)  R-538, R-RCR  2
 New Mexico  O-RCR, O-ev  2
 Oregon  O-ev  O-RCR  2
 South Carolina  R-RCR, R-ev  2
 South Dakota  R-RCR, R-ev  2
 Connecticut  O-RCR  1
 Indiana  R-RCR  1
 Maine  O-RCR(3)  O-RCR(1)  1
 New Jersey  O-RCR  1
  • States in play legend:
    • Letter before dash:   O = Obama; R = Romney
    • Letters after dash: ev = electoral-vote.com;  H = Huffington Post; 538 = NYT: FiveThirtyEight; RCR = Real Clear Politics

NOTE: Huffington Post only classifies states in play as Leans or Toss-up.

______________________________________________________________

The details:

NYT: FiveThirtyEight  Nov 5 1:26 am ET

Obama – 307.2 electoral votes, 50.6%  of the popular vote

  • Obama Solid [253 electoral votes]*
  • Likely Obama [28 electoral votes]
    • Iowa – Projected vote share +/-3.4 Obama 50.9, Romney 48.0
    • New Hampshire – Projected vote share +/- 3.7  Obama 51.2, Romney 48.0
    • Ohio – Projected vote share +/- 2.9 Obama 51.1, Romney 47.9
  • Lean Obama [12 electoral votes]
    • Colorado – Projected vote share +/- 3.2 Obama 50.4, Romney 48.7
    • Virginia  – Projected vote share +/-2.6   Obama 50.4, Romney 48.9

Romney 230.8 electoral votes, 48.5% of the popular vote

  • Romney Solid [191 electoral votes]*
  • Likely Romney [16 electoral votes]
    • Nebraska CD-2 District 2  – Projected vote share +3.9 Obama 47.3, Romney 51.9
    • North Carolina  – Projected vote share +/- 2.7 Obama 48.7, Romney 50.7
  • Lean Romney [0 electoral votes]

Tossup [29 electoral votes]

  • Florida  – Projected vote share +/-2.8 Obama 49.6, Romney 49.9

 

*Electoral vote count shown in [ ] was calculated from information on the website.

_______________________________________________________

Huffington Post Nov. 5 10:43 am ET

Obama – Electoral Votes 277

  • Strong Obama 237 electoral votes
  • Leans Obama 40 electrical votes
    • Iowa – 6
    • Nevada – 6
    • Ohio – 18
    • Wisconsin – 10

Romney – Electoral Votes 191

  • Strong Romney 191 electrical votes
  • Leans Romney 0 electrical votes

Tossup – Electoral Votes 70

  • Colorado -9
  • Florida – 29
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • North Carolina – 15
  • Virginia – 13

___________________________________________

Real Clear Politics Nov. 5th viewed 11:21 am ET

Obama – Electoral Votes 201

  • Solid Obama 154 electoral votes
  • Likely Obama 29 electoral votes
    • Connecticut – 7
    • Maine – 3
    • New Jersey 14
    • New Mexico – 5
  • Lean Obama 18 electrical votes
    • Maine CD2 – 1
    • Minnesota – 10
    • Oregon – 7

Romney – Electoral Votes 191

  • Solid Romney 127 electoral votes
  • Likely Romney 53 electoral votes
    • Georgia – 16
    • Indiana – 11
    • Missouri – 10
    • Montana – 3
    • Nebraska CD2 – 1
    • South Carolina – 9
    • South Dakota – 3
  • Leans Romney 11 electoral votes
    • Arizona – 11

Tossup – Electoral Votes 146

  • Colorado – 9
  • Florida – 29
  • Iowa – 6
  • Michigan – 16
  • Nevada – 6
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • North Carolina – 15
  • Ohio – 18
  • Pennsylvania – 20
  • Virginia – 13
  • Wisconsin – 10

______________________________________

electoral-vote.com Nov 5th around 7am

Obama – Electoral Votes 294

  • Strong Obama 179 electoral votes
  • Likely Obama 38 electoral votes
    • Michigan – 16
    • Minnesota – 10
    • New Mexico – 5
    • Oregon – 7
  • Barely Obama 77 electoral votes
    • Iowa – 6
    • Nevada – 6
    • New Hampshire – 4
    • Ohio – 18
    • Pennsylvania – 20
    • Virginia – 13
    • Wisconsin – 10

Romney – Electoral Votes 220

  • Strong Romney 139 electoral votes
  • Likely Romney 52 electoral votes
    • Arizona – 11
    • Georgia – 16
    • Montana – 3
    • Missouri – 10
    • South Carolina – 9
    • South Dakota – 3
  • Barely Romney 29 electoral votes
    • Florida – 29

Exactly tied – Electoral Votes 24

  • Colorado – 9
  • North Carolina – 15