The Day After – Looking at the Predictions
The votes are still being counted in 27 states as of 5pm. However, the election has been called and President Barack Obama will serve an additional four years as President.
The election has been called but the final electoral college count is not know and will not been known until Florida results. If Florida goes to Obama, he will have a total of 332 electoral votes; 25 more than predicted by NYT: FiveThirtyEight, the site which predicted the highest number of electoral votes for Obama. Romney will have 206 electoral votes; electoral-vote.com made the closest prediction of 220. If Romney wins Florida, he will have a total of 235 electoral votes; within 4 electoral votes of the NYT: FiveThirtyEight prediction. The win for Romney would also make the NYT: FiveThirtyEight prediction of 307 electoral votes for Obama the closest to the actual outcome.
|Electoral Counts for Obama||Total|
|Election results as of noon Nov 6th||303 (332)*|
|Real Clear Politics||201|
|Electoral Counts for Romney||Total|
|Election results as of noon Nov 6th||206 (235)*|
|Real Clear Politics||191|
*The number in “( )” is how many electoral votes the candidate will have if he wins Florida.
Ten of the twenty-four “states in play” have finished as of 5pm Nov 7th. In the second table the “Results” replaces the “Notes” column. The winner is noted and percent of votes won followed by a characterization of the percentage won by;: < 1% Tossup; > 1% Leans; > 4% Likely; > 9% Solid. The percentages are from the PBS Newshour: VOTE 2012: Live Election Results after all precincts have reported as of 5pm Nov 7th, except Nebraska CD2-2 (1), which cam from the Nebraska Secretary of State. The predictions that match the results are in bold. If the “Result” was “Solid” then the sites not listed in the table were closest.
|States in Play||Likely*||Lean||Tossup||Results**|
|Colorado||O-538||Huff, RCR, ev||Obama|
|Florida||R-ev||538, Huff, RCR||Tossup|
|Iowa||O-538||O-Huff, O-ev||RCR||Obama 52%/46% – Likely|
|New Hampshire||O-538||O-ev||Huff, RCR||Obama|
|North Carolina||R-538||Huff, RCR, ev||Romney 51%/48% – Likely|
|Ohio||O-538||O-Huff, O-ev||RCR||Obama 50%/48% – Lean|
|Virginia||O-538, O-ev||Huff, RCR||Obama|
|Wisconsin||O-Huff, O-ev||RCR||Obama 53%/46% – Likely|
|Georgia||R-RCR, R-ev||Romney 53%/45% – Likely|
|Missouri||R-RCR, R-ev||Romeny 54%/44% – Solid|
|Nebraska CD2-2 (1)||R-538, R-RCR||Romney 51%/47% – Likely|
|New Mexico||O-RCR, O-ev||Obama 53%/43% – Solid|
|South Carolina||R-RCR, R-ev||Romney|
|South Dakota||R-RCR, R-ev||Romney 58%/40% – Solid|
- States in play legend:
- Letter before dash: O = Obama; R = Romney
- Letters after dash: ev = electoral-vote.com; H = Huffington Post; 538 = NYT: FiveThirtyEight; RCR = Real Clear Politics
- “Results” catagories are defined: < 1% Tossup; > 1% Leans; > 4% Likely; > 9% Solid
* NOTE: Huffington Post only classifies states in play as Leans or Toss-up.