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The Day After – Looking at the Predictions

The votes are still being counted in 27 states as of 5pm. However, the election has been called and President Barack Obama will serve an additional four years as President.

The election has been called but the final electoral college count is not know and will not been known until Florida results. If Florida goes to Obama, he will have a total of 332 electoral votes; 25 more than predicted by NYT: FiveThirtyEight, the site which predicted the highest number of electoral votes for Obama. Romney will have 206 electoral votes; electoral-vote.com made the closest prediction of 220. If Romney wins Florida, he will have a total of 235 electoral votes; within 4 electoral votes of the NYT: FiveThirtyEight prediction. The win for Romney would also make the NYT: FiveThirtyEight prediction of 307 electoral votes for Obama the closest to the actual outcome.

Electoral Counts for Obama Total
Election results as of noon Nov 6th 303 (332)*
FiveThirtyEight 307.2
Huffington Post 277
Real Clear Politics 201
electoral-vote.com 294
Electoral Counts for Romney Total
Election results as of noon Nov 6th 206 (235)*
FiveThirtyEight 230.8
Huffington Post 191
Real Clear Politics 191
electoral-vote.com 220

*The number in “( )” is how many electoral votes the candidate will have if he wins Florida.

 

Ten of the twenty-four “states in play”  have finished as of 5pm Nov 7th.  In the second table the “Results” replaces the “Notes” column.  The winner is noted and percent of votes won followed by a characterization of the percentage won by;: < 1% Tossup; > 1% Leans; > 4% Likely; > 9% Solid.   The  percentages are from the PBS Newshour: VOTE 2012: Live Election Results after all precincts have reported as of 5pm Nov 7th, except Nebraska CD2-2 (1), which cam from the Nebraska Secretary of State.  The predictions that match the results are in bold.  If the “Result” was “Solid” then the sites not listed in the table were closest.

States in Play Likely* Lean Tossup  Results**
Colorado O-538 Huff, RCR, ev  Obama
Florida R-ev 538, Huff, RCR  Tossup
Iowa O-538 O-Huff, O-ev RCR  Obama 52%/46% – Likely
New Hampshire O-538 O-ev Huff, RCR  Obama
North Carolina R-538 Huff, RCR, ev  Romney 51%/48% - Likely
Ohio O-538 O-Huff, O-ev RCR  Obama 50%/48% – Lean
Virginia O-538, O-ev Huff, RCR  Obama
Pennsylvania O-Huff, O-ev RCR  Obama
Nevada O-Huff, O-ev RCR  Obama
Wisconsin O-Huff, O-ev RCR  Obama 53%/46% – Likely
Arizona R-ev R-RCR  Romeny
Georgia R-RCR, R-ev  Romney 53%/45% – Likely
Michigan O-ev RCR  Obama
Minnesota O-ev O-RCR  Obama
Missouri R-RCR, R-ev  Romeny 54%/44% – Solid
Montana R-RCR, R-ev  Romeny
Nebraska CD2-2 (1) R-538, R-RCR  Romney 51%/47% – Likely
New Mexico O-RCR, O-ev  Obama 53%/43% – Solid
Oregon O-ev O-RCR  Obama
South Carolina R-RCR, R-ev  Romney
South Dakota R-RCR, R-ev  Romney 58%/40% – Solid
Connecticut O-RCR  Obama
Indiana R-RCR  Romney
Maine O-RCR(3) O-RCR(1)  Obama
New Jersey O-RCR  Obama
  • States in play legend:
    • Letter before dash: O = Obama; R = Romney
    • Letters after dash: ev = electoral-vote.com; H = Huffington Post; 538 = NYT: FiveThirtyEight; RCR = Real Clear Politics
    • “Results” catagories are defined: < 1% Tossup; > 1% Leans; > 4% Likely; > 9% Solid

* NOTE: Huffington Post only classifies states in play as Leans or Toss-up.

** Results from PBS Newshour: VOTE 2012: Live Election Results after all precincts have reported as of 5pm Nov 7th, except Nebraska CD2-2 (1), which cam from the Nebraska Secretary of State.