Election 2012 – Last Look at the Predictions
President Obama has been sworn into office for his second term. So, how did the predictors do? Here are some assessments:
- Fact: Nate Silver Predicts Election Outcome, Becomes Nerdy Chuck Norris, Wired
- Pollsters and Pundits: Who Got the Presidential Election Right and Who Didn’t: A Reckoning U.S. News
- Keeping Track: Pundits and Pollsters and Their Presidential Predictions U.S. News
- Among the top election quants, Nate Silver reigns supreme c/net
These look at the accuracy of the vote percentage. But, I’m wondering which ones I should use in 2016 to get a sense of which states are “in play.” Looking at the results there were 15 states and Nebraska’s 2nd CD where the winner won by less than 10%, i.e. state-in play, before the election. Electoral-votes.com came the closest to identifying these states. The site identified all 15 states. However, electoral-vote.com identified another 5 states as being in play. Huffington Post identified 10 of the states. NYT: FiveThirtyEight identified 7 of the states and Nebraksa’s 2nd CD. Real Clear Politics identified all 15 states, but also identified 10 more.
Here is the “states in play” table from my Nov. 8th post, The Day After – Looking a the the Predicitions, with the official results1.
| States in Play | Likely* | Lean | Tossup | Results** |
| Colorado | O-538 | Huff, RCR, ev | Obama 51%/46% – Likely | |
| Florida | R-ev | 538, Huff, RCR | Obama 50%/49% – Tossup | |
| Iowa | O-538 | O-Huff*, O-ev | RCR | Obama 52%/46% – Likely |
| New Hampshire | O-538 | O-ev | Huff, RCR | Obama 52%/47% – Likely |
| North Carolina | R-538 | Huff, RCR, ev | Romney 51%/48% - Lean | |
| Ohio | O-538 | O-Huff*, O-ev | RCR | Obama 50%/48% – Lean |
| Virginia | O-538, O-ev | Huff, RCR | Obama 51%/47% – Lean | |
| Pennsylvania | O-Huff*, O-ev | RCR | Obama 52%/47% – Likely | |
| Nevada | O-Huff*, O-ev | RCR | Obama 53%/46% – Likely | |
| Wisconsin | O-Huff*, O-ev | RCR | Obama 53%/46% – Likely | |
| Arizona | R-ev | R-RCR | Romney 54%/45% – Likely | |
| Georgia | R-RCR, R-ev | Romney 53%/46% – Likely | ||
| Michigan | O-ev | RCR | Obama 54%/45% – Likely | |
| Minnesota | O-ev | O-RCR | Obama 53%/46% – Likely | |
| Missouri | R-RCR, R-ev | Romney 54%/44% – Likely | ||
| Montana | R-RCR, R-ev | Romney 55%/42% – Solid | ||
| Nebraska CD2-2 (1) | R-538, R-RCR | Romney 51%/47% – Likely | ||
| New Mexico | O-RCR, O-ev | Obama 53%/43% – Solid | ||
| Oregon | O-ev | O-RCR | Obama 55%/42% – Solid | |
| South Carolina | R-RCR, R-ev | Romney 55%/44% – Solid | ||
| South Dakota | R-RCR, R-ev | Romney 58%/40% – Solid | ||
| Connecticut | O-RCR | Obama 58%/41% – Solid | ||
| Indiana | R-RCR | Romney 54%/44% – Solid | ||
| Maine | O-RCR(3) | O-RCR(1) | Obama 56%/41% – Solid | |
| New Jersey | O-RCR | Obama 58%/41% – Solid |
- States in play legend:
- Letter before dash: O = Obama; R = Romney
- Letters after dash: ev = electoral-vote.com; H = Huffington Post; 538 = NYT: FiveThirtyEight; RCR = Real Clear Politics
- “Results” categories are defined: < 1% Tossup > 1% Leans > 4% Likely > 9% Solid
* NOTE: Huffington Post only classifies states in play as Leans or Toss-up.
1. Results from the Popular Vote Totals posted on the National Archives 2012 Presidential Election site, except Nebraska CD2-2 (1), which came from the Nebraska Secretary of State.